With less than a week left until the 2023 National AFL Draft, the consistency of information coming out of every club has become clearer, while the variability of every decision appears to have decreased. This brings us to the Critical AFL Phantom Draft, and our final revision appears to have more winners across the board (especially West Coast), with only a couple of early wildcards left that could have a domino effect on later selections.
The two decisions that may still impact this phantom draft most heavily include; Essendon at pick five, and Hawthorn at pick seven (taking into account the slide from picks four and six respectively after a matched bid on Will Ashcroft).
The Bombers are reportedly weighing up a difficult decision between Elijah Tsatas and Mattaes Phillipou with their number five pick. While both players appear to hold very similar weight in the eyes of the bombers, Phillipou has been deemed likely to slip all the way through to pick ten. This leaves the door open to Essendon trading back to this position with St Kilda, in a swap that surprisingly may not shuffle the top twenty order significantly if it were to happen. If the Bombers retain their pick, then it is likely that they choose Tsatas at five. While if the Saints move up to this pick it will most likely be for the same player.
This remarkable trade can only happen at the last minute on draft night now, and while we believe that it is only a toss-of-the-coin to happen, we are calling tails that it won’t. The main reason being the slight risk of a Hawthorn bid on Jhye Clarke causing a domino effect that could see the Eagles taking Phillipou with pick nine.
Which brings us to the other early wildcard, Hawthorn, and their decision between Jhye Clarke and Cam McKenzie with pick seven. A bid on Clarke will surely impact Geelong who have their hearts set on the promising local midfielder. This could result in them snapping up any of the following; Jed Busslinger, Cam McKenzie, or Reuben Ginbey, who we believe they view in that order of preference. It goes without saying that if this little snowball were to gain momentum, the Cats COULD end up taking Ginbey a pick before West Coast can get their hands on their prized draft target, before shifting their focus to Mattaes Phillipou in turn, right before Essendon if they were to trade back to pick ten. So you can see why we think the Bombers will hold tight with pick five on draft night.
With these and many other factors to take into account, it’s easy to see why AFL draft night in 2023 could be one of the most exciting AFL drafts in years! Which is why we are pleased to reveal our final phantom draft order to you below now:
Pick One: GWS
Aaron Cadman
Key Forward – 191cm
Vic Country
Whether not interested, or not spiteful enough to bother, we are expecting GWS to stay out of the draft index war and leave bids on the future Lion Will Ashcroft for someone else (North Melbourne) to do. After all, it’s no secret that they have eyes only for the imposing key forward from Greater Western Victoria for many reasons, the most important one being that he is committed to the club and won’t become a VFL farm target in years to come.
Possible Alternatives: A bid on Will Ashcroft to get it over and done with. Either way, Cadman will be a Giant.
Pick Two: Brisbane Lions (father-son matched bid)
Will Ashcroft
Midfielder – 181cm
Vic Metro
If GWS might not be expected to spite a fellow non-Victorian by bidding on Ashcroft, don’t expect the same courtesy from the Hobart-Sorry… North Melbourne Kangaroos. After doing everything within their Power (pardon the pun) not to offend their number one draft pick Jason Horne-Francis by bidding on Daicos last year, they won’t be making the same mistake twice.
Possible Alternatives: None, just as sure as Cadman will be a Giant, Ashcroft is going to be a Lion.
Pick Three: North Melbourne
George Wardlaw
Midfielder – 182cm
Vic Metro
Comment I-told-you-so all you like if Sheezel goes first, but it doesn’t really matter which order the Kangaroos use picks three and four. Wardlaw/Sheezel, Sheezel/Wardlaw. These two are the likely and logical options, and it really doesn’t matter who they choose first, unless North are still concerned about offending their draftees.
Possible Alternatives: Harry Sheezel, or maybe even Elijah Tsatas (can’t rule it out)
Pick Four: North Melbourne
Harry Sheezel
Forward/Mid – 185cm
Vic Metro
As above, the Wardlaw/Sheezel combo is the most logical and likely selection for the Kangaroos.
Possible Alternatives: Elijah Tsatas (can’t rule it out)
Pick Five: Essendon
Elijah Tsatas
Midfielder – 186cm
Vic Metro
As mentioned earlier, pick five has a little question mark over it right now due to the Bombers’ unclear preference between Elijah Tsatas and Mattaes Phillipou. If the Bombers were to pursue Phillipou, it is entirely plausible that they would do so by gaining extra picks through a trade with St Kilda, while slipping back to pick ten where they could still hold reasonable expectation of grabbing the exciting young star from South Australia.
IF this trade did go ahead, then the name Elijah Tsatas would almost certainly be read out at pick five, however he would be off to St Kilda.
Possible Alternatives: Mattaes Phillipou at pick five, or St Kilda taking Tsatas at this selection
Pick Six: Gold Coast
Bailey Humphrey
Mid/Forward – 185cm
Vic Country
After a great deal of talk surrounding the Sun’s decision at pick six, the expansion club appears to have finally seen reason in selecting the young gun from country Victoria. Not only is Bailey Humphrey an absolute star hybrid midfielder/forward with comparisons to Toby Greene, but fellow Gippsland Power product Sam Flanders is already at the Suns, who like GWS, are desperate to select one-club players after years of VFL poaching.
Possible Alternatives: Reuben Ginbey, Jedd Busslinger
Pick Seven: Hawthorn
Jhye Clarke
Midfielder – 181cm
Vic Country
Another highly touted, inside midfielder, there is no doubt that Hawthorn are looking for quality midfielders after offloading senior talent like Jaeger O’Meara, and Tom Mitchell during this year’s trade period. It would appear that the Hawks are undecided between Cam McKenzie, and the Geelong Falcons local Clarke, however it is unlikely that they lose any sleep over taking Geelong’s prize target a pick early and ruining the fairytale of the reigning premiers.
Possible Alternatives: Cam Mackenzie, Mattaes Phillipou
Pick Eight: Geelong
Jed Busslinger
Defender – 196cm
WA
Another club that is mildly vulnerable to the selections above them. Geelong are almost certainly interested in Jhye Clark for their top pick if he’s available. However, in the highly plausible event that he is taken by Hawthorn as predicted in our phantom draft, then it is believed that Jed Busslinger will be their next likely selection. With a very complete list already (see the 2022 AFL Grand Final as our reference), the premier defender from this year’s draft and close friend of personal mentor Joel Selwood, would make the perfect finishing touch.
Possible Alternatives: Jhye Clarke, Cam McKenzie, Reuben Ginbey
Pick Nine: West Coast
Reuben Ginbey
Midfielder – 189cm
WA
It should be music to the ears of West Coast fans that Reuben Ginbey is now more likely than not to be picked up with the Eagles’ first selection. The midfield bolter of the draft was always in their sights, and quite possibly was one of the primary reasons that list manager Rohan O’Brien split pick two just before Ginbey lit up the AFL Draft Combine. However, just as the Eagles first selection slid from two to eight (BA – before Ashcroft), Ginbey’s value rocketed from the late teens to well inside the top ten. It would appear now however, that the dust has settled and the Eagles should still get their man.
Possible Alternatives: Mattaes Phillipou, Jedd Busslinger, Ed Allen
Pick Ten: St Kilda
Cam Mackenzie
Midfielder – 188cm
Vic Metro
An absolute steal if he gets past both Hawthorn and Geelong, there is no chance that Cam McKenzie gets past the team that selected him for their Next Generation Academy.
Possible Alternatives: Elijah Tsatas, Mattaes Phillipou.
Pick Eleven: Carlton
Mattaes Phillipou
Midfielder – 190cm
SA
By now, best available talent would prevent Mattaes Phillipou from sliding any further if he is still available.
Possible Alternatives: Jed Busslinger, Ollie Hollands,
Pick Twelve: Western Bulldogs
Ollie Hollands
Midfielder – 183cm
Vic Country
This draft has been regularly referred to for the various segments of equal talent. Many commentators have cast a net over picks 1 – 5, and then 6 – 15. At pick twelve, Ollie Hollands stands as one of the remaining players from this talent cluster, and would also be a suitable pickup for the Dogs.
Possible Alternatives: Jed Busslinger, Matthew Jefferson (195cm Forward), Mattaes Phillipou, Lachlan Cowan (188cm Defender).
Pick Thirteen: West Coast
Ed Allan
Midfielder – 194cm
WA
The other major late bolter from the draft, and again a target that West Coast had well in their sights before impressing the rest of the competition at the draft combine, Ed Allan would be a major steal for the Eagles alongside Reuben Ginbey. In one fell swoop they stand to replenish a desperately ageing midfield with two of the most powerful inside mids in the draft to join the speedy first rounder Campbell Chesser who missed out on a debut this season with a serious ankle injury. Watch that space!
Possible Alternatives: Jed Busslinger, Elijah Hewitt
Pick Fourteen: Melbourne
Matthew Jefferson
Key Forward – 195cm
Vic Metro
Melbourne are unlikely to get their hands on many of the names listed before this pick. It is most expected that even if the order is shuffled, the content of the first thirteen selections will be pretty firm as a group. That said, you never know.
With a side as complete as Melbourne however, don’t expect them to mind. A key forward like Jefferson may be exactly what they need considering their star midfield is still around the perfect age, their backline is one of the best in the competition, and they just picked up Brodie Grundy during the trade period. On paper the only excuse this side had for bombing out of finals was a premiership hangover…
Possible Alternatives: Ollie Hollands, Lachlan Cowan, Lewis Hayes, Elijah Hewitt, or any unexpected sliders from our first thirteen predictions.
Pick Fifteen: Sydney
Elijah Hewitt
Midfielder – 185cm
WA
The slick midfielder from WA rounds out the last of a block of players assessed as equal in future potential. Previously predicted as a possible top ten pick, Hewitt appears to have fallen out of favour with a couple of clubs that hold early selections. This is rumoured to be due to concerns over consistency, and apparently feedback from some of the interviews he had around the time of the draft combine. Based on his best performances, Hewitt would be an absolute steal to any club that picks him up towards the end of the first round.
Possible Alternatives: Henry Hustwaite, Coby Burgiel
Pick Sixteen: GWS
Jacob Konstanty
Forward – 177cm
Vic Country
Another Gippsland Power product goes to another expansion club that is risk averse to the go-home factor. This small forward would make an excellent long-term addition to the Giants during their rebuild.
Possible Alternatives: Henry Hustwaite
Pick Seventeen: Collingwood
Henry Hustwaite
Mid/Defender – 195cm
Vic Country
Based on best available talent, Hustwaite could be a steal at pick seventeen. Alternately, having cleaned up with midfield selections in recent years, a key defender is as good a choice as any for a rising flag contender.
Possible Alternatives: Lewis Hayes
Pick Eighteen: Sydney
Ollie Hotton
Forward/Mid – 182cm
Vic Metro
Not to be confused with Ollie Hollands (yes, we could have just stuck with calling one of them Oliver), the medium sized forward would fit right in with this year’s premiership bridesmaids.
Possible Alternatives: Isaac Keeler – Ruck/forward
Pick Nineteen: GWS
Coby Burgiel
Mid/Forward – 183cm
Vic Country
Another Gippsland Power product, with the tag ‘midfielder’ in his list of attributes, Coby Burgiel could quite possibly round out a heist of players from country Victoria who should be happy to call Greater Western Sydney their forever home.
Possible Alternatives: Charlie Clarke, Ollie Hotton
Pick Twenty: GWS
Charlie Clarke
Despite the warning label ‘Vic Metro,’ GWS have been rumoured to have an interest in the medium sized forward. Watch this space.
Possible Alternatives: Coby Burgiel, Ollie Hotton
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